1 00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:16,080 [Music] 2 00:00:28,500 --> 00:00:25,090 this is the first time I attend one of 3 00:00:32,009 --> 00:00:28,510 your meetings and I was introduced to 4 00:00:36,689 --> 00:00:32,019 this group about 12 years ago by John 5 00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:36,699 Deere retired USGS geologist who had a 6 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:39,129 hard time living in the US GS 7 00:00:45,719 --> 00:00:41,890 environment because they are hostile to 8 00:00:50,039 --> 00:00:45,729 new ideas so he introduced me into this 9 00:00:53,549 --> 00:00:50,049 and then he talked me into writing a 10 00:00:55,859 --> 00:00:53,559 paper about 12 years ago on what I think 11 00:00:58,789 --> 00:00:55,869 three earthquake signals might be 12 00:01:01,350 --> 00:00:58,799 because I have spent the preceding 13 00:01:03,780 --> 00:01:01,360 decades studying from a solid state 14 00:01:06,270 --> 00:01:03,790 physics viewpoint certain properties of 15 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:06,280 materials and rocks and minerals that 16 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:08,890 led me to believe that many of the 17 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:11,250 reported pre-earthquake signals are 18 00:01:16,890 --> 00:01:15,130 actually produced by a phenomenon that 19 00:01:19,860 --> 00:01:16,900 had been consistently over see 20 00:01:22,850 --> 00:01:19,870 overlooked and that is linked to the 21 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:22,860 generation of electricity in rocks and 22 00:01:27,930 --> 00:01:25,690 when I started to understand the physics 23 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:27,940 I this I said well I'll go ahead and 24 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:30,490 write this paper and what I can tell you 25 00:01:37,770 --> 00:01:33,010 today is what I wrote 12 years ago 11 26 00:01:40,110 --> 00:01:37,780 years ago is has become 19 percent true 27 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:40,120 there was no basic mistake in this thing 28 00:01:46,320 --> 00:01:43,570 so I want to quickly go through and it's 29 00:01:48,570 --> 00:01:46,330 a very broad Singh area so I don't 30 00:01:50,790 --> 00:01:48,580 cannot go into many details but 31 00:01:55,350 --> 00:01:50,800 earthquakes are the deadliest of all 32 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:55,360 natural disasters and the society as in 33 00:02:01,110 --> 00:01:57,810 which we live now has about this way of 34 00:02:03,450 --> 00:02:01,120 dealing with the danger they wait until 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:03,460 an earthquake happens and they bury the 36 00:02:09,149 --> 00:02:05,290 dead clean up the mess 37 00:02:11,610 --> 00:02:09,159 right new building codes wait under the 38 00:02:17,270 --> 00:02:11,620 next disaster will happen and my 39 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:20,690 now there's a large community 40 00:02:25,589 --> 00:02:23,410 well-funded community of seismologists 41 00:02:28,110 --> 00:02:25,599 out there and they have done wonderful 42 00:02:31,470 --> 00:02:28,120 work but they are doing it in a very 43 00:02:33,119 --> 00:02:31,480 narrow sector because they look at past 44 00:02:34,729 --> 00:02:33,129 earthquakes and calculate the 45 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:34,739 probabilities of future earthquakes 46 00:02:41,039 --> 00:02:38,890 something like life insurance companies 47 00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:41,049 are doing they have a million customers 48 00:02:47,190 --> 00:02:43,750 and they know exactly how many of their 49 00:02:49,350 --> 00:02:47,200 customers will die next month but they 50 00:02:52,289 --> 00:02:49,360 will never tell you who it is who will 51 00:02:55,229 --> 00:02:52,299 die so the statistic of small numbers 52 00:02:58,550 --> 00:02:55,239 kill the possibility of predicting and 53 00:03:00,870 --> 00:02:58,560 that is the problem of the seismologists 54 00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:00,880 what they are doing is as knowledge 55 00:03:04,589 --> 00:03:03,040 interviewing they have to wait as a 56 00:03:07,740 --> 00:03:04,599 function of their techniques that you're 57 00:03:14,190 --> 00:03:07,750 using until something happens and the 58 00:03:19,020 --> 00:03:14,200 magnitude one earthquake creates a 59 00:03:20,849 --> 00:03:19,030 rupture of about 1 million square feet 60 00:03:23,550 --> 00:03:20,859 in the Earth's crust 61 00:03:26,099 --> 00:03:23,560 only that large fracture will stick it 62 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:26,109 will produce a signal that is called a 63 00:03:31,289 --> 00:03:28,810 magnitude one which is very difficulty 64 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:31,299 ticked so if you go up to a magnitude 8 65 00:03:35,870 --> 00:03:33,730 or 9 a magnitude 9 earthquake really is 66 00:03:38,970 --> 00:03:35,880 energy about 2 million atomic bombs 67 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:38,980 exploding exploding simultaneously and 68 00:03:46,500 --> 00:03:44,170 people seismologists don't get it a hint 69 00:03:50,190 --> 00:03:46,510 that something like this might be coming 70 00:03:52,409 --> 00:03:50,200 so there's something wrong we have to 71 00:03:54,839 --> 00:03:52,419 understand what happens before the 72 00:03:57,960 --> 00:03:54,849 Earth's weekly rupture and that's 73 00:04:00,809 --> 00:03:57,970 essentially what I did so here you see 74 00:04:05,460 --> 00:04:00,819 an experiment that we did some 10 years 75 00:04:08,699 --> 00:04:05,470 ago in here at NASA Ames with a very old 76 00:04:12,300 --> 00:04:08,709 hydraulic press and what you see there 77 00:04:15,089 --> 00:04:12,310 is a 4 5 meter long granite rock and on 78 00:04:18,029 --> 00:04:15,099 the far end we have copper electrodes 79 00:04:20,099 --> 00:04:18,039 and two Pistons electrically insulated 80 00:04:24,629 --> 00:04:20,109 from the press and at the front you see 81 00:04:28,830 --> 00:04:24,639 a copper contact and between the two 82 00:04:29,790 --> 00:04:28,840 there's just a electrometer a picot a 83 00:04:33,510 --> 00:04:29,800 meter 84 00:04:37,020 --> 00:04:33,520 and we we start stressing we immediately 85 00:04:41,189 --> 00:04:37,030 see in the moment we stress there is a 86 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:41,199 current flowing and as we increase the 87 00:04:45,689 --> 00:04:43,690 stress ik the current saturates and then 88 00:04:48,390 --> 00:04:45,699 when we keep it constant the current 89 00:04:50,159 --> 00:04:48,400 good in caves and that goes on we have 90 00:04:52,469 --> 00:04:50,169 done this experiment over two and a half 91 00:04:55,379 --> 00:04:52,479 month the current continues to decay 92 00:04:58,020 --> 00:04:55,389 when we remove the stress the current 93 00:05:00,869 --> 00:04:58,030 eventually goes away what this is 94 00:05:03,059 --> 00:05:00,879 actually the rocks are you have no time 95 00:05:06,209 --> 00:05:03,069 to go into the details but the rock 96 00:05:08,219 --> 00:05:06,219 behaves like a battery a semiconductor 97 00:05:10,499 --> 00:05:08,229 battery that in the moment your stress 98 00:05:15,420 --> 00:05:10,509 you activate some defects in the 99 00:05:18,659 --> 00:05:15,430 minerals these defects fall apart form 100 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:18,669 electron hole pairs the electrons are 101 00:05:23,580 --> 00:05:20,770 tied to the volume that is being 102 00:05:25,830 --> 00:05:23,590 stressed and the holes can flow out they 103 00:05:28,140 --> 00:05:25,840 flow at about 200 meters per second and 104 00:05:31,439 --> 00:05:28,150 they travel we now have evidence we know 105 00:05:33,390 --> 00:05:31,449 we can produce them upon command and we 106 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:33,400 see them over a hundred kilometers 107 00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:36,610 distance as I spread out this is a very 108 00:05:42,779 --> 00:05:40,150 interesting and powerful phenomena so 109 00:05:45,570 --> 00:05:42,789 when rocks are stressed they turn into a 110 00:05:49,830 --> 00:05:45,580 battery and these electron hole pairs 111 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:49,840 are just semiconductor physics the 112 00:05:55,409 --> 00:05:52,090 electrons stay behind the holes flow out 113 00:05:59,100 --> 00:05:55,419 well why do they flow out and what are 114 00:06:01,860 --> 00:05:59,110 they now here's the only equation that I 115 00:06:03,570 --> 00:06:01,870 want to show you and that is a very very 116 00:06:07,260 --> 00:06:03,580 simple phenomenon namely 117 00:06:09,899 --> 00:06:07,270 in minerals you always have an oxygen 118 00:06:13,230 --> 00:06:09,909 bond between they say two silicon atoms 119 00:06:15,510 --> 00:06:13,240 or aluminum silicon atoms and that is 120 00:06:17,700 --> 00:06:15,520 the structure of minerals but due to 121 00:06:20,159 --> 00:06:17,710 some processes that I that's how I 122 00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:20,169 became aware of these things that happen 123 00:06:24,629 --> 00:06:22,000 during the cooling from high 124 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:24,639 temperatures there are processes by 125 00:06:30,899 --> 00:06:28,050 which the electrons of the oxygens are 126 00:06:32,909 --> 00:06:30,909 given away they are given away actually 127 00:06:35,670 --> 00:06:32,919 two protons which become molecular 128 00:06:37,589 --> 00:06:35,680 hydrogen and what is left behind are two 129 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:37,599 oxygens which a chemist called the 130 00:06:44,249 --> 00:06:40,289 peroxy the stuff you have in your 131 00:06:47,020 --> 00:06:44,259 detergent for us as a mild oxidant 132 00:06:48,700 --> 00:06:47,030 they are sitting there as defects in 133 00:06:51,730 --> 00:06:48,710 minerals and they do nothing you can't 134 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:51,740 you can't see them until you stress them 135 00:06:56,950 --> 00:06:53,930 or you heat them or you shine UV light 136 00:06:59,620 --> 00:06:56,960 on them then they play the part they 137 00:07:02,439 --> 00:06:59,630 form an electron hole pair the electron 138 00:07:04,390 --> 00:07:02,449 gets trapped sits in energy levels 139 00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:04,400 slightly below the edge of the valence 140 00:07:10,719 --> 00:07:08,630 band and the the hole is associated with 141 00:07:12,969 --> 00:07:10,729 the energy levels at the edge of the 142 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:12,979 valence band and that allows them to 143 00:07:18,730 --> 00:07:15,850 propagate through through the grains 144 00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:18,740 jump grain boundaries go from rock to 145 00:07:26,980 --> 00:07:21,320 rock and do a number of interesting 146 00:07:30,129 --> 00:07:26,990 things so rocks turn into a battery 147 00:07:33,370 --> 00:07:30,139 that's a rather fundamental discovery 148 00:07:35,650 --> 00:07:33,380 and it's very strange that it took so 149 00:07:38,140 --> 00:07:35,660 long long time it was happening this it 150 00:07:40,900 --> 00:07:38,150 should have discovered in twenties and I 151 00:07:43,749 --> 00:07:40,910 ran across this over a period of wealth 152 00:07:46,570 --> 00:07:43,759 almost 30 years starting the first hint 153 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:46,580 I got that this was in the late 60s 154 00:07:51,850 --> 00:07:48,650 early 70s that we published the first 155 00:07:53,620 --> 00:07:51,860 paper in mid 70s and ever since I have 156 00:07:55,779 --> 00:07:53,630 come back to this question even though 157 00:07:58,300 --> 00:07:55,789 through my academic career back in 158 00:08:00,969 --> 00:07:58,310 Germany and then the last 25 years here 159 00:08:06,490 --> 00:08:00,979 at NASA I have done many other things on 160 00:08:09,250 --> 00:08:06,500 the side so it's a new chapter in 161 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:09,260 earthquake physics but not only in Seoul 162 00:08:14,770 --> 00:08:11,330 this is actually a new chapter in 163 00:08:17,950 --> 00:08:14,780 material science and solid-state now 164 00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:17,960 here is a one image that I want to show 165 00:08:24,089 --> 00:08:21,380 you twice and what 166 00:08:27,850 --> 00:08:24,099 that's essentially what is happening you 167 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:27,860 stress a rock down there ten kilometers 168 00:08:34,990 --> 00:08:31,610 below the earth you activate electron 169 00:08:38,050 --> 00:08:35,000 hole pairs the holes flow out they reach 170 00:08:40,329 --> 00:08:38,060 the surface and at the surface they 171 00:08:43,779 --> 00:08:40,339 accumulate because of the dielectric 172 00:08:48,070 --> 00:08:43,789 constant difference between air and the 173 00:08:50,110 --> 00:08:48,080 solid and there are many processes that 174 00:08:52,990 --> 00:08:50,120 happen at this interface and we can 175 00:08:56,110 --> 00:08:53,000 measure all of them with a number of 176 00:09:02,560 --> 00:08:56,120 different techniques now one technique 177 00:09:06,810 --> 00:09:02,570 that we are using is that we look at 178 00:09:09,790 --> 00:09:06,820 when these hole carriers become 179 00:09:12,670 --> 00:09:09,800 accumulated and reach higher number 180 00:09:16,269 --> 00:09:12,680 densities per area of volumes they start 181 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:16,279 to recombine now it did cost energy to 182 00:09:21,490 --> 00:09:19,010 chase them out of bed down there 1020 183 00:09:24,670 --> 00:09:21,500 kilometer the earthquake is starting to 184 00:09:25,990 --> 00:09:24,680 happen it takes about two electron volts 185 00:09:28,300 --> 00:09:26,000 a little bit more two point four 186 00:09:31,810 --> 00:09:28,310 electron volts of energy and when they 187 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:31,820 recombine this energy is released but it 188 00:09:36,550 --> 00:09:33,890 is not released it is released on the 189 00:09:39,010 --> 00:09:36,560 two oxygens there are lucky enough or 190 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:39,020 unlucky enough to participate in this 191 00:09:44,319 --> 00:09:41,410 recombination though they are 192 00:09:46,680 --> 00:09:44,329 vibrationally highly excited at the tune 193 00:09:50,590 --> 00:09:46,690 of about twenty to twenty-five thousand 194 00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:50,600 degrees Kelvin and they instantly emit 195 00:09:55,890 --> 00:09:53,630 infrared photons as they tumble down the 196 00:09:58,510 --> 00:09:55,900 staircase to come back to a 197 00:10:01,630 --> 00:09:58,520 thermodynamic equilibrium so we are 198 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:01,640 expecting to see infrared photons 199 00:10:07,300 --> 00:10:04,370 emission from the surface of the rocks 200 00:10:08,980 --> 00:10:07,310 that we are and this emission happens to 201 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:08,990 be in the thermal in the middle infrared 202 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:10,610 where the thermal emission those are 203 00:10:16,449 --> 00:10:12,650 satellites looking down on the earth 204 00:10:20,110 --> 00:10:16,459 seeing some strange increase in infrared 205 00:10:23,380 --> 00:10:20,120 radiation in the area were to three days 206 00:10:25,569 --> 00:10:23,390 later there will be a big earthquake the 207 00:10:28,439 --> 00:10:25,579 satellites phone a down and say I see 208 00:10:31,090 --> 00:10:28,449 heat but it's not heat it's an infrared 209 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:31,100 luminescence that had never before been 210 00:10:36,220 --> 00:10:34,250 described it's depending on this quantum 211 00:10:39,579 --> 00:10:36,230 transitions between the vibration of 212 00:10:41,860 --> 00:10:39,589 excited States then now we can look at 213 00:10:44,790 --> 00:10:41,870 what do these positive holes do further 214 00:10:47,410 --> 00:10:44,800 well they're all positively charged 215 00:10:48,370 --> 00:10:47,420 relative to their environment though 216 00:10:50,860 --> 00:10:48,380 they hate each other 217 00:10:53,560 --> 00:10:50,870 electrostatically Coulomb repulsion will 218 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:53,570 push them apart until they reach the 219 00:10:59,500 --> 00:10:55,810 surface and where they become trapped 220 00:11:02,110 --> 00:10:59,510 but why they travel when they hit the 221 00:11:04,630 --> 00:11:02,120 earth they will look mostly for 222 00:11:06,939 --> 00:11:04,640 topographic Heights though most of these 223 00:11:08,770 --> 00:11:06,949 processes will happen on the 224 00:11:11,590 --> 00:11:08,780 mountaintops rather than in the 225 00:11:14,260 --> 00:11:11,600 values and this we can use in the area 226 00:11:17,740 --> 00:11:14,270 of earthquake prediction you have heard 227 00:11:20,410 --> 00:11:17,750 this earthquake in Italy L'Aquila which 228 00:11:23,530 --> 00:11:20,420 became famous because I'm seismologist 229 00:11:26,470 --> 00:11:23,540 stupidly sit assured the local people 230 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:26,480 there will be no earthquake go home and 231 00:11:30,850 --> 00:11:28,970 have a glass of wine and then three days 232 00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:30,860 or two days later the earthquake hit and 233 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:33,230 some 300 plus people were killed though 234 00:11:38,170 --> 00:11:35,450 these colleges are in person right now 235 00:11:41,530 --> 00:11:38,180 or at least they are sensitive to prison 236 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:41,540 there is the earthquake center the old 237 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:44,090 town of l'aquila which was so severely 238 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:47,210 damaged so this is a valley that is just 239 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:50,930 dissected by four or five known seismo 240 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:53,810 genic faults which ruptured and at the 241 00:11:59,110 --> 00:11:56,210 round you see here the cran salsa which 242 00:12:04,360 --> 00:11:59,120 is the highest mountains in Peninsula of 243 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:04,370 Italy and now when you look at this the 244 00:12:09,070 --> 00:12:06,770 same picture on the left and on the 245 00:12:12,580 --> 00:12:09,080 right you'll see is the infrared anomaly 246 00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:12,590 that this is picked up by satellites it 247 00:12:19,930 --> 00:12:15,830 is the mountaintops that are shining as 248 00:12:23,170 --> 00:12:19,940 if they were set ablaze and that is 249 00:12:25,810 --> 00:12:23,180 infrared radiation that is coming from 250 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:25,820 the rocks it's not heat its 251 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:27,770 spectroscopically different from the 252 00:12:36,250 --> 00:12:30,410 heat but it occurs in the same spectral 253 00:12:39,130 --> 00:12:36,260 window and actually we are now starting 254 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:39,140 a global earthquake forecasting system 255 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:41,330 which will have a satellite component 256 00:12:45,670 --> 00:12:44,090 where we want to develop the satellite 257 00:12:48,370 --> 00:12:45,680 technology to look at these things 258 00:12:50,290 --> 00:12:48,380 spectroscopically not just integrate 259 00:12:53,530 --> 00:12:50,300 over the infrared window and say it 260 00:12:56,740 --> 00:12:53,540 looks like heat no way we can see it we 261 00:13:00,160 --> 00:12:56,750 can see the color of these things you're 262 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:00,170 the same thing now just the talk that 263 00:13:08,220 --> 00:13:03,850 you gave we refer to these 264 00:13:11,290 --> 00:13:08,230 extraterrestrials many of these ideas 265 00:13:16,230 --> 00:13:11,300 emerge because people at night sometimes 266 00:13:19,570 --> 00:13:16,240 see strange luminous phenomena glows of 267 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:19,580 glowing balls floating through the air 268 00:13:24,070 --> 00:13:22,010 zigzagging very fast 269 00:13:27,010 --> 00:13:24,080 earthquake lights we just published 270 00:13:28,930 --> 00:13:27,020 earlier this year a big paper reviewing 271 00:13:31,540 --> 00:13:28,940 400 years of earthquakes light and we 272 00:13:33,910 --> 00:13:31,550 got it published in the core Journal of 273 00:13:36,730 --> 00:13:33,920 seismology and seismological Research 274 00:13:39,070 --> 00:13:36,740 Letters and it created quite a stir and 275 00:13:42,310 --> 00:13:39,080 some of the seismologist had to scratch 276 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:42,320 their head and say well can we accept 277 00:13:49,450 --> 00:13:47,930 this or so we are studying and we have 278 00:13:51,940 --> 00:13:49,460 not yet reached the point where that we 279 00:13:54,460 --> 00:13:51,950 can reproduce it in the laboratory but 280 00:13:56,170 --> 00:13:54,470 we are getting close to it so what I 281 00:13:58,630 --> 00:13:56,180 want to show you is something different 282 00:14:01,050 --> 00:13:58,640 namely when the number of charge 283 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:01,060 carrying at the surface of the earth 284 00:14:07,110 --> 00:14:04,370 increases to a concern D an Associated 285 00:14:11,740 --> 00:14:07,120 electric field at the interface between 286 00:14:14,950 --> 00:14:11,750 rock and air or ground and air becomes 287 00:14:18,220 --> 00:14:14,960 so high that air molecules become field 288 00:14:21,010 --> 00:14:18,230 ionized so the elated air molecules 289 00:14:23,020 --> 00:14:21,020 mostly oxygen molecules donate an 290 00:14:25,270 --> 00:14:23,030 electron they lose an electron to the 291 00:14:27,940 --> 00:14:25,280 ground which goes back into the big 292 00:14:32,050 --> 00:14:27,950 ground of the planet and they float away 293 00:14:34,870 --> 00:14:32,060 or are pushed away as prostitution 294 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:34,880 charged air ions and this happens over 295 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:37,490 an area of four magnitude five six 296 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:39,050 earthquake over an area of about a 297 00:14:44,980 --> 00:14:43,010 hundred or 200 kilometers across happens 298 00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:44,990 impulses because there are couple 299 00:14:48,550 --> 00:14:46,880 processes from the transport of the 300 00:14:50,740 --> 00:14:48,560 charges through the earth and these 301 00:14:53,170 --> 00:14:50,750 ionization processes these are very 302 00:14:56,050 --> 00:14:53,180 interesting kinetic processes they come 303 00:14:58,390 --> 00:14:56,060 at pulses and they form a bubble that 304 00:15:00,820 --> 00:14:58,400 rises through the stratosphere and then 305 00:15:03,250 --> 00:15:00,830 continues their way up into the 306 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:03,260 atmosphere and that's other aspects that 307 00:15:10,330 --> 00:15:05,210 we are studying and we want to study 308 00:15:13,030 --> 00:15:10,340 with the help of NASA and if a bubble of 309 00:15:15,790 --> 00:15:13,040 positive ionized air rises to let's say 310 00:15:17,410 --> 00:15:15,800 10 50 kilometers just by ballistic 311 00:15:20,050 --> 00:15:17,420 expansion upward due to the 312 00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:20,060 electrostatic repulsion among the ions 313 00:15:26,950 --> 00:15:24,110 the plasma in the ionosphere of course 314 00:15:29,350 --> 00:15:26,960 responds like a capacitor plate the 315 00:15:31,420 --> 00:15:29,360 plasma is neutral it has positive ions 316 00:15:34,030 --> 00:15:31,430 and lots of electrons and the electrons 317 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:34,040 are negative and they come down about 318 00:15:38,930 --> 00:15:35,130 the same 319 00:15:41,030 --> 00:15:38,940 as the positive charges drifting upwards 320 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:41,040 and moving upwards through the air and 321 00:15:45,830 --> 00:15:43,170 we can develop this in great detail and 322 00:15:50,630 --> 00:15:45,840 we see a number of interesting phenomena 323 00:15:55,250 --> 00:15:50,640 but this coming down of the electrons in 324 00:15:59,630 --> 00:15:55,260 the answer is known as a Tec total 325 00:16:02,060 --> 00:15:59,640 electron content anomaly and that's oh I 326 00:16:06,220 --> 00:16:02,070 forgot to mention one more thing yes 327 00:16:10,250 --> 00:16:06,230 please as the charges are building up 328 00:16:12,770 --> 00:16:10,260 things on the surface of the earth pick 329 00:16:15,050 --> 00:16:12,780 up this charge so there is a paper by 330 00:16:18,260 --> 00:16:15,060 Tony Fraser's mace that he published in 331 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:18,270 1978 and what he had done and we are now 332 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:20,010 repeating this we start actually on 333 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:22,890 Monday this series of experiment he just 334 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:25,770 put two nails in an oak tree appear on 335 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:28,050 Stanford campus and measured the 336 00:16:35,050 --> 00:16:31,890 microworld signal and at 3 act as an 337 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:35,060 antenna and it picks up all kinds of 338 00:16:40,370 --> 00:16:38,010 electromagnetic signals that come either 339 00:16:43,670 --> 00:16:40,380 from the outside and what you see there 340 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:43,680 that are actually electromagnetic pulses 341 00:16:49,190 --> 00:16:46,650 that come from the geotech from the 342 00:16:51,650 --> 00:16:49,200 magneto teal tail when the earth plows 343 00:16:54,020 --> 00:16:51,660 through the solar wind there is in the 344 00:16:55,790 --> 00:16:54,030 wake there are turbulences in the 345 00:16:58,550 --> 00:16:55,800 magnetic field which collapse and 346 00:17:01,700 --> 00:16:58,560 produce these pulses known as pc-1 pc2 347 00:17:04,130 --> 00:17:01,710 abilities freeze and what you see on the 348 00:17:06,439 --> 00:17:04,140 top there is a tree potential on the 349 00:17:09,500 --> 00:17:06,449 right the signal here plotted as 350 00:17:11,990 --> 00:17:09,510 frequency over time and you see one of 351 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:12,000 these PC ones and the bottom is 352 00:17:17,059 --> 00:17:14,250 something that would nowadays cost 353 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:17,069 $50,000 magnetometer to pick up the 354 00:17:22,490 --> 00:17:19,290 thing the tree is better at picking up 355 00:17:26,059 --> 00:17:22,500 these signals than the $50,000 and we 356 00:17:28,670 --> 00:17:26,069 have $50,000 instruments at NASA and we 357 00:17:31,790 --> 00:17:28,680 are going to repeat this now exactly and 358 00:17:34,700 --> 00:17:31,800 we all see and whether we can learn more 359 00:17:36,620 --> 00:17:34,710 about by incorporating what we have 360 00:17:41,750 --> 00:17:36,630 learned since the spoke paper was 361 00:17:44,470 --> 00:17:41,760 published in 74 now another things which 362 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:44,480 is of interest in you to your community 363 00:17:52,549 --> 00:17:48,410 you all have heard that animals can 364 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:52,559 kind of feel something is coming and we 365 00:17:56,780 --> 00:17:54,690 have lots of data that this is true we 366 00:17:59,690 --> 00:17:56,790 are in the process of publishing some of 367 00:18:02,360 --> 00:17:59,700 it here is something that just blew me 368 00:18:04,310 --> 00:18:02,370 away when I first read it I was asked to 369 00:18:06,620 --> 00:18:04,320 review this paper and this published 370 00:18:09,650 --> 00:18:06,630 first in a book published by a Russian 371 00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:09,660 author and what had happened is in 2003 372 00:18:15,740 --> 00:18:12,480 there was a big magnet 11.6 earthquake 373 00:18:18,919 --> 00:18:15,750 in a sparse relatively sparsely 374 00:18:21,350 --> 00:18:18,929 populated part of southern Siberia at 375 00:18:23,780 --> 00:18:21,360 the boundary between Russia and Mongolia 376 00:18:26,060 --> 00:18:23,790 and there's a gentleman by name 377 00:18:28,010 --> 00:18:26,070 Alexander Sedov he took it upon himself 378 00:18:31,010 --> 00:18:28,020 after the earthquake to go through 379 00:18:33,260 --> 00:18:31,020 everything he could put his hands on to 380 00:18:35,330 --> 00:18:33,270 identify what had happened before this 381 00:18:37,220 --> 00:18:35,340 earthquake and he got hold of the 382 00:18:42,710 --> 00:18:37,230 medical records of the whole province 383 00:18:45,020 --> 00:18:42,720 and the population is only 250,000 384 00:18:48,710 --> 00:18:45,030 people not a very high statistical 385 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:48,720 number but the number of people over the 386 00:18:53,330 --> 00:18:50,610 long time average that came through the 387 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:53,340 emergency rooms tripled during that 388 00:18:58,940 --> 00:18:56,010 period of time starting about 10 days 389 00:19:01,520 --> 00:18:58,950 before the earthquake nobody knew the 390 00:19:03,950 --> 00:19:01,530 earthquake was coming but people started 391 00:19:06,140 --> 00:19:03,960 to flock to the emergency room said 392 00:19:08,930 --> 00:19:06,150 something wrong with me and when you 393 00:19:11,120 --> 00:19:08,940 look why they came some of them had 394 00:19:14,650 --> 00:19:11,130 pneumonia that's on the left in the 395 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:14,660 middle all the others that show a pre 396 00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:17,730 earthquake are related to the central 397 00:19:21,460 --> 00:19:18,750 nervous system 398 00:19:24,049 --> 00:19:21,470 epilepsy hypertension and all the other 399 00:19:26,330 --> 00:19:24,059 phenomena that clearly point that 400 00:19:29,870 --> 00:19:26,340 something is working there that 401 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:29,880 interferes with the functioning of the 402 00:19:33,500 --> 00:19:32,130 central nervous system as those 403 00:19:35,570 --> 00:19:33,510 therefore and this has actually 404 00:19:38,900 --> 00:19:35,580 triggered and we got funding from NASA 405 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:38,910 to study this now and we are getting 406 00:19:45,890 --> 00:19:41,250 down to the point with Victor Stoltz who 407 00:19:48,020 --> 00:19:45,900 was here on the first day you getting 408 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:48,030 down to starting to understand what is 409 00:19:52,549 --> 00:19:50,250 happening between ultra low frequency 410 00:19:56,860 --> 00:19:52,559 electromagnetic waves and electron 411 00:19:59,039 --> 00:19:56,870 transfer processes in this single cells 412 00:20:01,680 --> 00:19:59,049 no now I'm 413 00:20:04,470 --> 00:20:01,690 back to this one here so now I want to 414 00:20:08,249 --> 00:20:04,480 show you the ionosphere perturbations so 415 00:20:10,979 --> 00:20:08,259 when this bubble of positive air rises 416 00:20:13,919 --> 00:20:10,989 and the electron in the ionosphere 417 00:20:19,289 --> 00:20:13,929 plasma come down this is something that 418 00:20:21,419 --> 00:20:19,299 is easily shown by GPS technology 419 00:20:25,019 --> 00:20:21,429 actually the people who developed the 420 00:20:27,239 --> 00:20:25,029 GPS they saw that occasionally their GPS 421 00:20:30,210 --> 00:20:27,249 beams are deflected and the phase shift 422 00:20:34,769 --> 00:20:30,220 and they had to get go at great lengths 423 00:20:37,229 --> 00:20:34,779 to remove this dirt but that dirt is 424 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:37,239 information on the accumulation of 425 00:20:42,210 --> 00:20:39,850 electrons and what people then found 426 00:20:45,090 --> 00:20:42,220 over a period of about twenty years or 427 00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:45,100 hundreds of publications of this kind is 428 00:20:51,060 --> 00:20:47,769 that before major earthquake there's an 429 00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:51,070 accumulation of electrons at the lower 430 00:20:54,749 --> 00:20:53,529 edge of the ionosphere before the 431 00:20:58,409 --> 00:20:54,759 earthquake and that is happening 432 00:21:01,349 --> 00:20:58,419 precision about seven to five seven to 433 00:21:03,269 --> 00:21:01,359 three days before the earthquake and 434 00:21:05,849 --> 00:21:03,279 here you see an earthquake that happened 435 00:21:07,909 --> 00:21:05,859 it's a good one which I ought I'd like 436 00:21:12,509 --> 00:21:07,919 to show but it's already happened in 437 00:21:17,340 --> 00:21:12,519 2002 it was analyzed in 2008 Alaska 438 00:21:20,159 --> 00:21:17,350 Sagna 26.2 and you see on the left there 439 00:21:23,789 --> 00:21:20,169 is the 2d projection of the electron 440 00:21:26,759 --> 00:21:23,799 density relative to a normal density of 441 00:21:30,299 --> 00:21:26,769 the ionosphere projected over the map of 442 00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:30,309 Alaska and the things on the right and 443 00:21:34,669 --> 00:21:32,769 at the bottom are just vertical slices 444 00:21:38,460 --> 00:21:34,679 through the ionosphere in the 445 00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:38,470 north-south direction in this area so 446 00:21:43,590 --> 00:21:42,100 that is so we are now starting to 447 00:21:46,590 --> 00:21:43,600 implement a global earthquake 448 00:21:49,649 --> 00:21:46,600 forecasting system in at NASA Ames and 449 00:21:51,629 --> 00:21:49,659 we have already strong endorsement also 450 00:21:54,149 --> 00:21:51,639 from NASA and the European Space Agency 451 00:21:56,639 --> 00:21:54,159 and the United Nations to go ahead 452 00:21:59,999 --> 00:21:56,649 because the people who look at this they 453 00:22:02,639 --> 00:22:00,009 say the science makes sense we can go 454 00:22:05,789 --> 00:22:02,649 ahead and try to make use of it so now 455 00:22:08,580 --> 00:22:05,799 we are probably in three or five years 456 00:22:12,690 --> 00:22:08,590 we'll see that we'll get early warning 457 00:22:14,270 --> 00:22:12,700 not prediction but we can say that 458 00:22:17,100 --> 00:22:14,280 two or three days before there's a 459 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:17,110 tremendous in charge to increase in the 460 00:22:23,430 --> 00:22:18,970 chance of having a major earthquake at 461 00:22:25,740 --> 00:22:23,440 such-and-such place globally so when I 462 00:22:28,740 --> 00:22:25,750 started with this and I'm still under 463 00:22:30,810 --> 00:22:28,750 this pressure from my dear friend amis 464 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:30,820 in the US and the seismological 465 00:22:37,620 --> 00:22:34,690 community that I'm being called a fridge 466 00:22:42,390 --> 00:22:37,630 scientist and I think some of you know 467 00:22:45,420 --> 00:22:42,400 that term but now we start to understand 468 00:22:47,910 --> 00:22:45,430 the signs of physics behind this and we 469 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:47,920 can say we can start to understand and 470 00:22:52,620 --> 00:22:50,050 there's I bring this quote from John 471 00:22:56,340 --> 00:22:52,630 Deere that he always adds to his email 472 00:23:04,160 --> 00:22:56,350 that the earth is stranger than we give 473 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:05,870 Thank You freedom in for a very 474 00:23:10,820 --> 00:23:08,490 interesting talk I will make one comment 475 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:10,830 that as you know I've been monitoring a 476 00:23:16,669 --> 00:23:14,010 tree since 1978 and also an antenna 477 00:23:20,120 --> 00:23:16,679 built to Navy specifications and the 478 00:23:22,669 --> 00:23:20,130 tree is better and Marshall will come 479 00:23:24,919 --> 00:23:22,679 and see me come to to NASA Ames on 480 00:23:36,540 --> 00:23:24,929 Monday so we'll have a wonderful day 481 00:23:42,930 --> 00:23:40,770 I have two questions the first is if I 482 00:23:45,750 --> 00:23:42,940 understood correctly if you take that 483 00:23:47,910 --> 00:23:45,760 long granite beam and you press on it 484 00:23:50,580 --> 00:23:47,920 you get current flow and the current 485 00:23:52,950 --> 00:23:50,590 continues for as long as you you're 486 00:23:54,930 --> 00:23:52,960 pressing don't you have a perpetual 487 00:23:57,060 --> 00:23:54,940 motion machine there nope you're 488 00:23:59,250 --> 00:23:57,070 essentially forming if you stress a 489 00:24:02,010 --> 00:23:59,260 little bit you form a kind of motorcycle 490 00:24:04,890 --> 00:24:02,020 battery if you stress more or if you 491 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:04,900 threaten larger when you get a truck or 492 00:24:09,150 --> 00:24:07,330 a tank battery but you said the current 493 00:24:11,550 --> 00:24:09,160 keeps flowing as long as you've got the 494 00:24:14,460 --> 00:24:11,560 pressure on so if we keep slowing you 495 00:24:16,860 --> 00:24:14,470 battery has infinite power doesn't it 496 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:16,870 yes because you maintain a voltage 497 00:24:21,300 --> 00:24:19,090 across from the stretch to the 498 00:24:23,910 --> 00:24:21,310 unstressed end and it has an internal 499 00:24:26,910 --> 00:24:23,920 resistance and that current flows until 500 00:24:29,070 --> 00:24:26,920 the battery is empty okay the second 501 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:29,080 question the earth is known to have a 502 00:24:35,310 --> 00:24:33,010 net negative charge near the surface and 503 00:24:37,710 --> 00:24:35,320 that gives rise to the 100 volt per 504 00:24:39,780 --> 00:24:37,720 meter electric field that's but you 505 00:24:43,980 --> 00:24:39,790 never mention that is it possible that 506 00:24:46,020 --> 00:24:43,990 somehow the the electrons or whatever it 507 00:24:48,450 --> 00:24:46,030 is that carries the negative charge just 508 00:24:50,250 --> 00:24:48,460 beneath the surface of the earth somehow 509 00:24:53,730 --> 00:24:50,260 plays a role in what you're talking 510 00:24:56,670 --> 00:24:53,740 about interesting that you mentioned 511 00:24:59,550 --> 00:24:56,680 this because believe it or not it when 512 00:25:02,460 --> 00:24:59,560 goes back to Benjamin Franklin who was 513 00:25:05,340 --> 00:25:02,470 the first to think about the postage 514 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:05,350 difference between up and down and at 515 00:25:09,180 --> 00:25:07,450 that time as you know the sign of the 516 00:25:11,490 --> 00:25:09,190 polarity of the current was not yet 517 00:25:15,390 --> 00:25:11,500 defined and he called it right he said 518 00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:15,400 the earth ground is positive and the 519 00:25:21,090 --> 00:25:18,640 ionosphere is negative however then in 520 00:25:23,340 --> 00:25:21,100 the 1920s some very famous people wrote 521 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:23,350 the letter a rolled-up paper says the 522 00:25:27,330 --> 00:25:25,210 err no no no the earth is negative and 523 00:25:30,270 --> 00:25:27,340 the ionosphere is positive and everybody 524 00:25:32,610 --> 00:25:30,280 copies this paper and therefore I talked 525 00:25:35,430 --> 00:25:32,620 to almost everybody in the global 526 00:25:38,010 --> 00:25:35,440 electric field discipline and they all 527 00:25:39,870 --> 00:25:38,020 say why like you said yes yours is 528 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:39,880 negative and the answer and said how do 529 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:43,410 you know oh that's how we learned it 530 00:25:50,350 --> 00:25:45,810 so I'm actually in the process of 531 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:50,360 writing a competitive paper on saying 532 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:53,850 listen you are wrong you misinterpret 533 00:25:59,960 --> 00:25:56,690 that the data the earth is positive and 534 00:26:02,420 --> 00:25:59,970 the ionosphere is negative because 535 00:26:04,610 --> 00:26:02,430 nobody has the means of these two 536 00:26:06,830 --> 00:26:04,620 hundred fifty thousand volts kilowatts 537 00:26:09,470 --> 00:26:06,840 that exists between to measure them 538 00:26:11,660 --> 00:26:09,480 directly they are inferred then we know 539 00:26:14,410 --> 00:26:11,670 there is this voltage but the polarity 540 00:26:16,990 --> 00:26:14,420 is actually not really directly known 541 00:26:20,270 --> 00:26:17,000 thanks Gary 542 00:26:23,030 --> 00:26:20,280 sorry for the long answer answer thank 543 00:26:25,550 --> 00:26:23,040 you for such an enlightening talk I'm 544 00:26:28,430 --> 00:26:25,560 concerned about how the ionosphere 545 00:26:31,190 --> 00:26:28,440 heaters and the proliferation of these 546 00:26:33,710 --> 00:26:31,200 by not only the HAARP project in Alaska 547 00:26:36,500 --> 00:26:33,720 but by many countries might Swart your 548 00:26:38,360 --> 00:26:36,510 efforts to look at this because of the 549 00:26:42,380 --> 00:26:38,370 disturbances in the ionosphere being 550 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:42,390 created by these technologies yes that's 551 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:44,730 absolutely correct and the ionosphere is 552 00:26:51,170 --> 00:26:47,250 also very heavily disturbed by any 553 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:51,180 global coronal mass ejection from the 554 00:26:57,260 --> 00:26:53,610 Sun so geomagnetic storms and that is 555 00:27:01,780 --> 00:26:57,270 why our earthquake forecast system is 556 00:27:04,850 --> 00:27:01,790 built on trying to collect as many 557 00:27:07,100 --> 00:27:04,860 indicators as we can like the infrared 558 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:07,110 emission but if it is cloudy you cannot 559 00:27:11,690 --> 00:27:09,930 see them so we have to some look at some 560 00:27:14,210 --> 00:27:11,700 other things if there's a geomagnetic 561 00:27:16,790 --> 00:27:14,220 storm we cannot use the ionosphere but 562 00:27:19,430 --> 00:27:16,800 we may be using the animal behavior we 563 00:27:21,290 --> 00:27:19,440 may use water chemistry in the in the 564 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:21,300 ground water or spring water there are 565 00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:23,730 many there we have about a list of 20 566 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:26,370 different parameters that we can look 567 00:27:30,710 --> 00:27:28,290 and we will put them together in a 568 00:27:32,510 --> 00:27:30,720 decision tree just like NASA had to do 569 00:27:36,950 --> 00:27:32,520 when they launched the shuttle they have 570 00:27:39,230 --> 00:27:36,960 to go through ABCD check them off if 571 00:27:41,150 --> 00:27:39,240 there is some one thing which is wrong 572 00:27:44,210 --> 00:27:41,160 doesn't matter if it's not 573 00:27:47,420 --> 00:27:44,220 life-threatening you go ahead if it is 574 00:27:49,910 --> 00:27:47,430 then you start to worry about it 575 00:27:52,190 --> 00:27:49,920 briefly regarding the healthcare 576 00:27:55,410 --> 00:27:52,200 parameters from southern Russia it 577 00:27:58,620 --> 00:27:55,420 seemed to me that the four graphs on the 578 00:28:02,700 --> 00:27:58,630 had were rising fairly uniformly visa 579 00:28:04,860 --> 00:28:02,710 relatively to be other three so I'm 580 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:04,870 wondering if if we could draw a parallel 581 00:28:10,380 --> 00:28:07,210 between the similarity of the cause and 582 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:10,390 the disease is and the commonality 583 00:28:13,590 --> 00:28:12,010 between due to the fact that they're all 584 00:28:17,070 --> 00:28:13,600 rising at a similar rate if that's 585 00:28:19,530 --> 00:28:17,080 indeed the case yes I am pursue 586 00:28:21,750 --> 00:28:19,540 reproducing this image was this figure 587 00:28:23,700 --> 00:28:21,760 from that publication without really 588 00:28:26,550 --> 00:28:23,710 being I'm not in the medical field of 589 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:26,560 course so I'm inviting people who would 590 00:28:31,290 --> 00:28:29,050 be interested in working with me and and 591 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:31,300 see I'm in touch with it Alexander sheet 592 00:28:35,820 --> 00:28:33,730 off I want to invite him to come here in 593 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:35,830 December I am organizing a small 594 00:28:43,590 --> 00:28:41,770 conference at at NASA Ames and I want to 595 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:43,600 see whether we can establish some 596 00:28:49,350 --> 00:28:46,930 collaboration thank you for a 597 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:49,360 fascinating I'm here for thee 598 00:28:59,700 --> 00:28:54,090 [Applause]